Internal modelling tool. Not for client distribution. Figures are scenario projections, not commitments.
OFAB Aesthetics Wholesale / Forecast Model

12-month B2B procurement forecast.

Interactive model of clinic-account growth, repeat-order economics, and chain-account unlock value across four pre-set scenarios. Built on the Coolock same-day Dublin operating base. Move the sliders to stress-test the retainer thesis.

Scenario presets

Four pre-tuned settings spanning current pace through aggressive procurement-led growth. Click to load. Adjust sliders below to deviate.

Net new clinic accounts opened each month. Current baseline ~5.
Average GMV per ordering clinic per month. Range EUR 800-3000.
Share of active clinics placing an order in any given month. Current ~40%.
Multi-site groups landed over the year. Each worth EUR 500k to 2m annually.

Month 12 outcome

Headline figures at the end of the forecast horizon.

Active clinic accounts
285
Month 12 cumulative book
Month 12 MRR
EUR 0
Excluding chain accounts
Avg order value
EUR 1,800
Per ordering clinic
Cumulative GMV (12mo)
EUR 0
Clinic accounts only
Sleeping-chain unlock
EUR 0
Annualised chain revenue, mid-band

Monthly GMV trajectory

Clinic-account GMV stacked with chain-account contribution. Hover months below for detail.

Clinic-account GMV Chain-account GMV Active clinic accounts

Month-by-month detail

Granular view. Useful for retainer review and pipeline sanity-checking.

Month New accounts Active book Ordering clinics Clinic GMV Chain GMV Total GMV

Assumptions and guard-rails

The model is a procurement-economics simulation, not a sales projection. Read these before quoting any figure externally.

  • ASAI-compliant framing. The model projects supply-side capture of existing clinic procurement, not induced consumer demand for prescription-adjacent products. No POM-named consumer messaging is implied by any growth scenario.
  • IMC and HPRA registration awareness. All projected clinic accounts assume IMC-registered doctors, NMBI-registered nurse prescribers, or HPRA-recognised aesthetic practitioners. Non-registered buyers are excluded from the addressable base.
  • Post-Brexit B2B import overhead. Sterling-zone clinics are modelled at parity with EU pricing only when shipping via the Coolock dispatch route. NI clinics fall under the same-day Dublin lane; GB clinics carry import-VAT and CE-vs-UKCA documentation overhead not reflected in headline GMV.
  • Account churn. The model does not yet net out dormant accounts. Active book = cumulative opened. Retainer monthly review should reconcile against active-orderer count, not registered count.
  • Chain-account economics. Each chain win is modelled at EUR 1m annualised (mid-band between the EUR 500k and EUR 2m extremes per the market dive). Activation is staggered: 25% in landing month, 50% by month 3, 100% by month 6.
  • Same-day Dublin capacity. Coolock fulfilment is assumed elastic up to Big-dawg volumes. Stress-test above +30 net new per month requires capacity planning, not just demand generation.
  • Retainer anchor. Online Optimisers retainer is modelled outside this view. EUR 3-5k/m investment is the lever driving the New-clinics and Repeat-rate sliders, not a line item in this output.
  • Currency. All figures in EUR. Sterling and USD opportunities excluded from headline numbers; track separately.